#WorldSeed2022 Opening Ceremony Address by ISF President Donald Coles
Mr Coles served as president of ISF from 2020–2022.
I am going to start with reminding us about the population in 1800 only a little over two hundred years ago. This is in the middle of the Industrial Revolution which started in 1760 and is reported to have ended in 1830. During this 70-year period the population had only risen by 100 million.
Over the next 100years the population doubles to 2 billion. During this period medical science was advancing and so was our understanding of health which was a major and early contributor to population growth.
In 1856 the Austrian scientist Johann Mendel started his work to uncover and explain the theory of genetic inheritance. This was the beginning of the plant science revolution.
Just three years later in 1859 Darwin published his work On the Origin of Species — and his theory of evolution. Then 16 years later Darwin published his theory about heterosis (Hybridization) The effects of cross- and self-fertilization in the vegetable kingdom (1876)
The plant science enabling had started!
It was not until 1920 that the first commercial production of a hybrid crop took place. In this case Maize. (Link)
Just in time as the population was nearing 2 billion. In 1945 when WW2 ended the population started to increase dramatically. In 1960 the global population hit 3 billion and the race was on to feed our runaway population growth.
Plant breeding was at the center of solving this problem. The Green Revolution was born with the outstanding achievements of the Nobel Prize winning breeder Norman Borlaug. (Link)
It was his breeding innovations such as shuttle breeding and the introduction of semi dwarf-wheat, a type that was highly responsive fertilizer that enabled the population to continue to grow. (Link)
Next year we will hit 8 billion people. But keep in mind that since 1930 we have fed a fourfold population increase so we have a fighting chance of feeding another 3 billion by 2100. We can only do this if plant breeders are permitted to continue to advance their plant breeding innovations.
ISF has the structure, the technical knowhow, and the industry wide partners to help smooth the way towards 2100. There is no time to waste.
In 1970 you will see we had a population of 3.6 billion, over 1.5 billion more in just 50 years. Born was the next evolution in plant breeding: Genetic modification.
In 1986 the Gene Gun had been invented to assist where agrobacterium transformation in monocotyledons (grasses) was ineffective. (Link)
It was this time when my father read a story in a newspaper in Melbourne, Australia about a researcher Dr Mohan Sing who had characterized the genes in the pollen of ryegrass that were responsible for causing Asthma and hay fever.
Later with my company Valley Seeds his wife Professor Prem Bhalla successfully switched off these two genes and thus produced a potential cure for one of the major causes of these debilitating and deadly conditions. (Link)
Then came the first fake news.
False claims that GM plants would lead to
· control over the food supply,
· control of farmer inputs
· and even damage to human health and the environment.
Some thirty years later we have proven that these claims were false and unfounded scare tactics. This campaign slowed the development of safe and affective plant breeding methods, including the introduction of allergy free grass breeding.
In 2012 we hit a global population of 7 billion. At this time not only was yield keeping pace with population growth — as you can see from this graph, but land used to produce that food had not increased since 1960. In Europe alone 67% of yield increase is due to breeding. (Link)
The benefits of higher yields go well beyond just food production, it supports the environment by practically eliminating the need to increase land used for food production and thus is reported to have saved 1.5 billion hectares from cultivation. This is an area three times the size of Spain.
This data supports a proposition that Plant Breeders have been the great enablers of the human race. What I mean by enablers is that Plant Breeders have always taken preemptive action in order to prevent a global catastrophe.
You can imagine what would have happened had we needed another 1.5 billion Ha for food production and the associated land cultivation and deforestation. Plant breeders did not do this alone. There is an ecosystem that surrounds plant breeders and this is the network of seed companies that plant, process, test and market new varieties.
Plants make up over 80% by weight of all living things on the planet. Humans only account for 0.01% by weight but we have been responsible for taking a heavy toll on the planet. (Link)
In 1950 CO2 broke out of the range where previously levels did not exceed 300ppm.
By the 1990’s computer models confirmed the work on ice cores, that excess CO2 was the cause of global warming and that these detrimental effects will increase.
Global consensus on this subject was reached in 1990 when the global population was only 5.2 billion.
Plant breeders now have two problems. Firstly how to continue to increase yields during a period of rapid population increase and secondly to carry out this work while the climate is having a much greater and negative impact on plants and food production.
Plants are part of the of the CO2 cycle and present another opportunity.
10% of CO2 is cycled through plants via photosynthesis.
76% of this is retained in the above ground parts of the plant and
24% is held in plant roots. Link
This means we have the potential to sequester 2.4% of global CO2.
Farmers in Australia have recently been given the chance to be paid for sequestering Soil Organic Carbon. Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCU’s)
Now lies the challenge and opportunity of breeding plants and promoting farm practices that can maximize carbon sequestration.
For the past 200 years science has delivered innovations that have extended life expectancy from just 26yrs old in 1820 to 73yrs in 2020. Link
Over this period of scientific evolution some scientific developments have produced unintended consequences such as the discovery of radiation in 1898. It is therefore understandable that some in civil society would be suspicious of scientific developments. Plant science however stands alone as producing huge benefits to society with few if any unintended consequences.
News just in is that General Mills in USA will promote the use of Regenerative Agriculture in their supply chains. This is a practice where cover crops and the use of deep-rooted perennial species are used to protect the soil and sequester CO2. Our plant breeders are already delivering varieties that meet these needs.
Also this week a new report expresses concern over a potential increase in Aflatoxins in Corn as a result of climate change. Again plant breeders have already taken preemptive action by producing BT insect resistant corn which reduces the incidence of this deadly toxin.
Despite concerns raised by some NGO’s plant breeders continue to solve problems and deliver benefits for the entire human race. Nature may appear unpredictable to some, but in the hands of a plant breeder nature is entirely predictable.
By 2056 we will hit 10 billion humans on this planet. The good news is that the population rate is slowing. China and India are swapping places for who is going to win the population race. By the year 2100 population will level off at 11 billion.
Next year we will hit 8 billion people. But keep in mind that since 1930 we have fed a fourfold population increase so we have a fighting chance of feeding another 3 billion by 2100. We can only do this if plant breeders are permitted to continue to advance their plant breeding innovations.
ISF has the structure, the technical knowhow, and the industry wide partners to help smooth the way towards 2100. There is no time to waste.#
